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Which Teams Can You Trust in Round 1?
Eric Decosta - GM of the Ravens
Last week we graded every NFL team's overall draft performance.
This week we isolated round 1, where the stakes are highest.
We tracked every first-round pick across four metrics:
Hit rate - beat expectations for where they were drafted
Star rate - top 10% at their position in at least one season
Bust rate - cut within 3 years, bottom 25% at position
DVA (Draft Value Added) - balue elative to where they picked
Baltimore is in a league of its own. 86% hit rate. 50% star rate. ZERO busts. No wonder they're fighting to keep their first-rounder in the Crosby deal.
Tennessee is on the other end. 0% hit rate. 75% bust rate. The worst first-round track record in football and they're picking 4th this year. The 49ers, Jets and Giants aren’t far behind.
Who Your Fans Want in Round 1
Kayden McDonald (DL) is the top target for Bears fans
Pick #1 is locked in with Mendoza. At #2, Jets fans want Reese (82%).
After that, things gets interesting… Arizona can't agree on a position, let alone a player - Mauigoa leads (24%). Titans fans are gravitating toward Jeremiyah Love at pick #4 (61%). And the Giants are torn between Styles (47%) and Downs (34%).
The middle of round 1 is chaos with Cincinnati, Miami and Dallas not knowing who will be available. No player is above 10% consensus.
Towards the end of the first round, things get clearer with the Cowboys taking Howell at 20 (23%). Bears fans targeting Kayden McDonald (47%) and Chiefs fans wanting Colton Hood at 29 (20%).
Find your team's most popular pick - data from 100K+ mock drafts.
The Easiest “Buy” in this Draft
Chris Bell (WR) from Louisville
Chris Bell was a projected first-round pick before tearing his ACL. Now he's sliding to the mid-second.
6'1. 222 pounds. 4.44 forty. 151 career catches at 14.3 yards per catch with 12 touchdowns across four seasons at Louisville. His player comp is Alec Pierce and Jordan Addison — physical, explosive, WR1 ceiling.
If you've watched the draft long enough, you know how this plays out. Someone grabs him in the second round, the armchair fan says "who?" and two years later pretends they saw it coming. That's how teams like Baltimore keep hitting. They find value when other teams hesitate.
Atlanta, Cleveland, and the Saints all need receiver help and pick in the 33-56 range. Someone's getting a first-round talent at a second-round price.
More on prospect profiles, team fits and player comps 👇
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