Welcome to the first issue.
Every week, we’ll share what thousands of real mock draft simulations and GM sessions are telling us about your favorite team. This isn't pundit talk. It's what fans actually do when they're on the clock — who they pick, who they cut, what it means.
The combine starts today. Here's where things stand:
Consensus First Picks by Team
Data from 200,000+ mock drafts on Stick to the Model
Some fanbases knew exactly what they want in this years draft. The Jets at #2 locked in on Arvell Reese 59%. Chargers at #22 weren't far behind — Olaivavega Ioane at 56%.
Then there are teams like the Titans at #4, who are having an identity crisis. Bain at 32%. Bailey at 21%. Tate at 17%. Downs at 13%. Cleveland at #6 is just as messy — five players between 13% and 23%, and Browns fans can't agree on anything except that they need help everywhere.
The Most Wanted Man in the Draft
Caleb Downs in the consensus BPA on defense
Caleb Downs is the top selection for six different teams. No other player comes close.
Bengals fans draft him 72% of the time. Giants at 64%. Commanders at 52%. Chiefs at 30%. Saints at 26%. Cowboys at 14%. Six fanbases, only one winner.
If the Giants take him at #5, Washington pivots to edge rush. The Bengals could pivot to DL, and the Saints and Chiefs might look to the offensive side of the ball.
Downs isn't the only player caught in a tug of war. Four other prospects have three fanbases fighting over them
Combine Watch — 3 Players to Track
Players we’ve got our eye on in Indy
Here are three prospects whose testing could actually move the board.
Carnell Tate is the first WR off the board in most mocks, going in the 4-6 range. But Jordyn Tyson is right behind him at every stop. Tyson isn't participating in combine testing, which gives Tate an open runway. A sub-4.4 forty locks in the separation.
Ty Simpson is the consensus QB2 behind Mendoza, but he doesn't show up in volume until the mid-teens — Pittsburgh takes him at 21 in 8% of mocks. That's a wide gap between perception and draft position. Simpson didn't start a game until last season, and the experience concerns are real.
Akheem Mesidor was a round 3 prospect in December. Then the playoffs happened — 23 pressures and 5 sacks in his last 4 games against Texas tier 1 competition. The concerns aren't about his pass rush. He turns 25 in April and missed most of 2023 with a foot injury. Clean medicals this week could be the difference between late first and mid-second.
Snap Reads:
Only one QB is going in Round 1. Ty Simpson shows up at 16 for the Jets at just 7%. If that holds, it would be the lowest QB count in round 1 since 2013
Chicago fans disagree on player, not position. 60% of Bears picks at 25 are defensive tackles. McDonald (36%) vs Banks (24%)
Cowboys are going defense with both first-rounders. Mansoor Delane (CB) at 12, Sonny Styles (LB) at 20. The big D in Dallas stands
Hot Take — Shrink the Game
NFL announces the 49ers will play in Mexico City
The 49ers will play a regular season game in Australia, a “home game” in Mexico City, and travel cross-country for the Falcons and the Giants. They’re lined up to be the most traveled team in NFL history next year.
The NFL went from 5 international games in 2024 to 8 this year to what looks like 10+ in 2026. That's not growth - that's a world tour. And world tours are for Taylor Swift, not offensive linemen.
Look, I get it. The international TV money is real, the crowds sell out, and there's nothing better than waking up hungover Sunday AM and realizing a game is on.
Every NFL game matters because there's only 17 of them. And the league is choosing to dilute its own product by sending teams across the world mid-season. The average London game already finishes 32-17. You don't notice the cost in October. You notice it in January.
There’s a reason the rest of the world calls it “American football.”
See you next Thursday,
STTM
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